As the traditional "high season" (Nov.-Apr.) draws to a close, we thought we'd provide some analysis on what has happened along the Maui oceanfront. First, some points of comparison. In each of the the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 high seasons, eleven Maui oceanfront homes sold or were placed under contract. Oddly enough, in the 2007-2008 high season that number has remained the same. Eleven homes sold or placed under contract. Five of those homes were in South Maui, five were on the West side and one was on the North Shore.

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There have been several recent events on Maui which will impact Maui real estate. First Honua'ula, which had received County Council approval has had its approvals challenged in court by a local group claiming the Council did not follow the State's "Sunshine" practices in scheduling meetings and allowing for public testimony. While it is too early to determine the timing impact on Honua'ula, this is not good news for the developer. Second, the Maui County Council is hinting that property tax rates for Maui real estate in the 2008-2009 fiscal year will not change. For more details contact us!

Our friends at Bank of Hawaii were kind enough to invite us to a breakfast with their Chief Economist Paul Brewbaker this morning to discuss his views on the State of Hawaii and Maui's economy. Here are some snippets:

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The NAR has released its latest research on the attitudes and characteristics of American vacation home buyers. Here are some key insights:

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The NAR has released data for March and the news is not good.

The national median existing-home price (2) for all housing types was $200,700 in March, down 7.7 percent from a year ago when the median was $217,400. Because the slowdown in sales from a year ago is greater in high-cost areas, there is a downward pull to the national median with relatively higher sales activity in low-cost markets…Existing-home sales in the West rose 2.2 percent in March to a level of 940,000 but are 22.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $285,100, which is 14.7 percent lower than March 2007.

The good news is that national for sale inventory only increased 1% in March. That means nationally we now have 9.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. So what does this all mean for Maui real estate?

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With the demise of ATA and Aloha Airlines, we get asked frequently what we think the impact will be on Maui real estate. What is happening at the moment to airfares etc? This Honolulu Advertiser article summarizes things.

With Aloha Airlines and ATA ending their passenger service, the remaining flights between here and the Mainland are fuller, with fewer discounted seats…

So what does it mean for Maui real estate?

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We are announcing a major price reduction on our listing Hale Maluhia at 6681 Makena Road.  This nearly one acre estate boasts a new 4100 square foot home built with top of the line materials and exquisite care. The 700 square foot cottage offers either income possibilities, or a home for a caretaker or a refuge for visitors. All of this is only steps from Big Beach! Now listed for $5,999,000.

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In the past week we have seen an island-wide burst in high-end Maui real estate activity. Wailea real estate saw a $3.3 million closing, in Wailea Point, a $4.5 million closing, in Wailea Golf Estates and nearby Maui Meadows saw a $3 million home go into escrow. Makena real estate had a $5+ million piece of vacant land go into escrow. Maui oceanfront homes participated as well with a $9 million Maluhia at Wailea home go into escrow and a Kahana home closed for $3.7 million.

A recently released piece of market research may explain why this is happening.

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We are pleased to announce that 3387 Kuaua Place in Maui Meadows, listed for $3.295 million has gone into escrow. This extraordinary piece of Maui real estate boasts Wailea-style construction and breathtaking ocean views.

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The Federal Reserve is posting maps showing where the subprime issues are located. As you look for the impact on Maui real estate the closest you can find find the Honolulu market. It is instructive. Compared to a national average of 3.86%, Honolulu ranks eleventh nationally with only 2.29%. The average price of a home compared to the market's peak is 99% compared to a national average of 92%. The areas facing the biggest problems are Stockton and Riverside California with 8% delinquencies and 20%+ sales price declines. Other areas relatively untouched include markets like Seattle, San FFrancisco, Spokane and San Jose.

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